Geospatial Semantic Web Blog

In July 2006, Gartner published a new report on the hype cycle of emerging technologies. Last year, Gartner published a similar report. Among those technologies mentioned in 2005’s report, Corporate Semantic Web, mesh sensor networks, and location-aware applications are the few that also appeared in this year’s report.

Some technologies newly appeared in the new report include Ajax, Web 2.0, folksonomies, social network analysis, offline Ajax, and Wiki.

The following are the hype cycle charts of 2005 and 2006:

Hype Cycle Chart of 2006	Hype Cycle Chart of 2005

Gartner’s analysts believe that all emerging technology must go through a five-stage hype cycle (adopted from this source):

1. Technology Trigger: The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the “technology trigger” or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
2. Inflated Expectations:In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
3. Trough of Disillusionment:Technologies enter the “trough of disillusionment” because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
4. Slope of Enlightenment: Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the “slope of enlightenment” and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
5. Plateau of Productivity: A technology reaches the “plateau of productivity” as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

Since the ultimate goal for every emerging technology is to reach Stage Five “Plateau of Productivity”, in the report, Gartner estimates the number of years that each technology is expected to reach that stage based on their current market status.

In the 2006 report, Corporate Semantic Web has advanced from the “Technology Trigger” stage to the “Trough of Disillusionment” stage. This means that, based on Gartner’s analysis, Corporate Semantic Web has advanced from being new research ideas to technology that generates product buzz in the market. However, it’s number-of-years to reach Stage Five has increased to “5 to 10 years” — “2 to 5 years” was the previous estimate.

For Location-aware applications, in the new report, both of its standing in the hype cycle and its number-of-years to reach “Plateau of Productivity” remain unchanged.

Unlike Corporate Semantic Web and location-aware applications, mesh sensor networks not only didn’t advance, but also moved back in the hype cycle. Its position in the “Through of Disillusionment” stage has moved from the right to the left in the curve. Its outlook in reaching the end stage is increased from “2 to 5 years” to “more than 10 years”. In other words, analysts believe that because of certain unexpected technology or business obstacles, this technology will not be ready for wide usage in the next 2-5 years.

Just a word of caution. While Gartner’s reports are created with an in-depth analysis, you should read the report with an open-mind. You should neither go blindly investing in technologies that has been rated positively by the analysts, nor you should completely abandon technologies with a low rating.

The development of technology evolves everyday. It’s extremely difficult for anyone to predict the future. You should only use these reports as a guide to help you to understand the evolution and the progress of different technologies.

Source: this story was spotted on out-law.com